The global advertising market is set to exceed $1 trillion in revenue for the first time this year, with major tech companies like Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon, and Alibaba projected to capture more than half of that total. GroupM, a media agency owned by WPP, forecasts a 9.5% increase in global advertising revenue in 2024, even amid tough economic conditions in large markets like the US and UK. The group expects continued growth, projecting a further 7.7% rise in 2025, with the bulk of this growth benefiting digital advertising giants in the US tech sector, rather than traditional advertising agencies.
GroupM has excluded US political advertising from its estimates, as it distorts year-on-year comparisons. This year, political ad revenue in the US is expected to add $15.1 billion, nearly a third more than in the 2020 presidential election year. The report notes that while interest rates are unlikely to return to the near-zero levels that supported advertising growth post-financial crisis and during the pandemic, innovations in AI and automation will drive continued growth and efficiency in the sector.
By 2025, digital advertising is expected to account for 73% of total revenue, with a 12.4% global growth rate in 2024 and 10% in 2025. When including revenue from streaming services and digital publications, this figure rises to 82%. Traditional advertising channels like television, print, and radio are being eclipsed by the rise of digital platforms. Print ad revenue is forecasted to decline by 4.5% in 2024 and another 3% in 2025, while audio ad revenue will remain flat. TV advertising, both linear and streaming, is projected to grow by just 2.4% annually from 2024 to 2029.
The US remains the largest advertising market, expected to generate about $379 billion in revenue by 2025, despite higher borrowing costs and more cautious spending from retailers in sectors like electronics and home improvement. The report also highlights the potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar on the market, particularly for consumer goods and luxury advertisers, which may face challenges from slower consumption rates.
In China, advertising revenue is projected to rise by 13.5% to $204.5 billion in 2024, driven by initiatives aimed at boosting consumer confidence. In the UK, Europe’s largest ad market, growth is expected to reach 8.3% in 2024, with total revenue projected to hit $53.2 billion. The growth in China could lead to more robust advertising opportunities as both local and multinational companies look to tap into pent-up demand.